| 孟繁东,何明升.采用优化的Bass模型对中国IPv4标准扩散趋势研究[J].,2008,(1):137-142 |
| 采用优化的Bass模型对中国IPv4标准扩散趋势研究 |
| Research on IPv4 standard diffusion tendency in China by using optimized Bass model |
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| DOI：10.7511/dllgxb200801025 |
| 中文关键词: Bass模型 IPv4标准 标准扩散 蚁群算法 |
| 英文关键词: Bass model IPv4 standard standard diffusion ant colony optimization |
| 基金项目:教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20040213005). |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 在介绍描述创新扩散的Bass模型基础上，提出了优化模型的方法——采用蚁群算法作为Bass模型的参数估计算法，并以中国互联网IPv4标准的扩散为例，采用优化的Bass模型对其扩散趋势进行了深入研究. 通过与传统算法的比较，证明采用蚁群算法可以提高Bass模型参数估计的精度，并通过对模型实证研究结果的分析得出标准扩散作为一种特殊的技术创新扩散，遵循其一般扩散规律，采用优化的Bass模型对标准扩散问题进行研究效果会更好. 最后对中国互联网IPv4标准扩散趋势进行了预测并提出了策略建议. |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the introduction of Bass model which is used to describe innovation diffusion, an optimized model which adopts the ant colony optimization (ACO) as the parameter estimation approach of Bass model, is presented. Taking the diffusion of IPv4 standard in China as an example, the diffusion tendency is deeply investigated using optimized Bass model. Through comparison with traditional algorithm, it is proved that adopting ACO can improve the accuracy of parameter estimation for Bass model. By analyzing the research result of model demonstration, conclusion can be drawn that as a special technology innovation diffusion, standard diffusion conforms to the general diffusion rule, and that it is better to adopt the optimized Bass model in the research of standard diffusion. Finally, diffusion tendency of IPv4 standard in China is forecasted and some strategic suggestions are presented. |
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