文章摘要
王本德,张静.相应涨差模型在水库实时洪水预报调度中应用[J].,2008,(5):715-719
相应涨差模型在水库实时洪水预报调度中应用
Application of corresponding rising difference model to real-time flood forecast and dispatching of reservoir
  
DOI:10.7511/dllgxb200805017
中文关键词: 洪水预报  水库调度  相应涨差模型  衰减记忆递推  最小二乘法
英文关键词: flood forecast  reservoir dispatching  corresponding rising difference model  attenuation recollection recursive  least square method
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作者单位
王本德,张静  
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中文摘要:
      降雨发生时由于通信故障或遥测系统出错等原因,不能获得流域上游水雨情信息,只有中心站水雨情信息可得.为解决此问题,将改进的相应涨差模型应用到水库实时洪水预报调度中.模型采用衰减记忆递推最小二乘算法进行参数在线识别,用预报流量修正公式对预报结果进行修正.通过模型及修正公式检验,该模型可应用于水库或河道的实时洪水预报中.在水库实时洪水预报时,只需中心站的流量信息,计算方法简单.将模型应用于辽宁省大伙房水库,其预报结果令人满意.该模型可为水库实时调度方案制定提供依据,也可为其他无资料或资料短缺地区的实时洪水预报调度提供参考.
英文摘要:
      Because of the communications malfunction or remote measuring system mistake, the rain and water data in watershed can not be obtained during precipitation while only the data of water levels and flows in central station can be got. Under this condition, the real-time flood forecast and dispatching of reservoir is a difficult problem. In order to resolve this problem, improved corresponding rising difference model has been applied to reservoir real-time flood forecast and dispatching. Attenuation recollection recursive least square method is used to estimate model parameter and flow revising equation is used to revise the forecasted results. Through the verification of model and revising equation, the forecast model can be applied to the flood forecast of reservoir or river course. When doing reservoir real-time flood forecast, it only needs the data of central station′s water levels and flows, so its calculation is simple. Example application in Dahuofang reservoir shows that the forecasted results are satisfactory. The forecasted real-time flow can provide reference for plans establishment of real-time dispatching. The model also can provide flood forecast and dispatching reference for other ungauged regions.
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