王兴元,赵敏,樊印海.船舶电力负荷预测混沌时间序列分析法[J].,2010,(1):141-144 |
船舶电力负荷预测混沌时间序列分析法 |
Ship power load forecasting based on chaos time series analysis method |
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DOI:10.7511/dllgxb201001026 |
中文关键词: 船舶电力负荷 混沌 局域预测 灰关联 加权 |
英文关键词: ship power load chaos local forecasting gray correlation adding-weight |
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(60573172);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20070141014). |
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中文摘要: |
为提高船舶电力系统安全稳定性,提出对船舶电力负荷时间序列进行预测.首先分析船舶电力负荷是否为混沌时间序列,利用相空间重构对船舶电力负荷时间序列的最大 Lyapunov 指数进行了定量计算,由计算结果发现船舶电力负荷具有混沌特性.在此基础上,提出了船舶电力负荷预测模型,该模型将混沌局域预测与灰关联相结合,并将相点间的关联性大小经过加权的方式作用于船舶电力负荷预测模型.实际船舶电力系统的计算分析表明,灰关联加权局域预测模型具有较高的预测精度,是一种有效的用于船舶电力负荷混沌时间序列的预测模型. |
英文摘要: |
Ship power load time series forecasting is proposed in order to improve ship power system safety and stabilization. Firstly, chaos character of ship power load is analyzed, and the largest Lyapunov exponent is calculated by the reconstruction of phase-space. Computational result shows that ship power load presents chaotic character. On the basis of these analyses, ship power load forecasting model is presented. The local forecasting of chaos time series and the gray correlation are combined, and the values of expressing correlation act on ship power load forecasting model by means of adding-weight. The analysis for practical ship power system shows that the gray correlation adding-weight local forecasting model has superior predictive capability, and it is a valid prediction model for ship power load chaos time series. |
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