| 张金男,吴剑,魏国振,周惠成,彭勇,初京刚.优选雨量站权重改进降雨输入的洪水预报方法[J].,2020,60(5):537-546 |
| 优选雨量站权重改进降雨输入的洪水预报方法 |
| Method of flood forecasting based on rainfall input improvement by optimizing rainfall stations′ weights |
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| DOI：10.7511/dllgxb202005010 |
| 中文关键词: 资料短缺流域 新安江模型 洪水预报 优选雨量站权重 |
| 英文关键词: ungauged basin Xin′anjiang model flood forecasting optimal rainfall stations′ weights |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(51879029). |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 降雨是驱动水文模型进行洪水预报的重要输入数据，降雨资料短缺给洪水预报工作带来极大挑战．引入边缘雨量站降雨数据，基于随机优选方法，构建优选雨量站权重改进降雨输入的新安江模型，对资料短缺流域进行洪水预测，并在石灰窑以上流域进行试验研究．与泰森多边形权重相比，优选权重改进降雨输入的产流预报精度有显著提高，率定期、验证期产流合格率分别从60%、40%提高至100%、60%，汇流预报精度略有提升；改进降雨输入后的新安江模型的优选参数更符合流域产汇流特征，提升了模型参数的合理性．所提优选雨量站权重改进降雨输入的洪水预报方法，对类似降雨资料短缺流域洪水预报具有重要的参考价值． |
| 英文摘要: |
| Rainfall is an important input variable to drive hydrological models used for flood forecasting. The lackness of rainfall data brings a great challenge to flood forecasting. A method of flood forecasting for ungauged basin is proposed, in which the measured data of several rainfall stations within the neighboured basin is collected and used as additional input to Xin′anjiang model. The optimal weights of rainfall stations are determined by using random optimization algorithm. The new method is tested in the Shihuiyao basin. Runoff results from the optimized weights have higher precision than the calculated weights from Thiessen polygon method. The calculated qualified rates of runoff results during training and validation stages are largely improved from 60%, 40% to 100%, 60%, respectively. The calculated qualified rates of concentration results are slightly improved. The optimal parameters of the Xin′anjiang model are more suitable for the actual situation of rainfall runoff process within the selected basin, which can improve the reasonability and practicality of hydrological model. The proposed flood forecasting method can provide valuable references for similar ungauged basins. |
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