| 段雨男,段富海,曹慧.考虑退化特性相关性的航空电连接器可靠性分析方法[J].,2021,61(5):489-497 |
| 考虑退化特性相关性的航空电连接器可靠性分析方法 |
| Reliability analysis method of aviation electrical connector considering degradation characteristic correlation |
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| DOI：10.7511/dllgxb202105007 |
| 中文关键词: 可靠性 EM算法 Copula函数 多退化特性建模 |
| 英文关键词: reliability EM algorithm Copula function multiple degradation characteristic modeling |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(51975082). |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 采用带随机效应的Wiener退化过程模型，对航空电连接器进行温度和振动综合应力下加速特性退化过程建模，推导其退化量及可靠度，并采用基于Bayesian更新的EM算法估计模型中的未知参数．针对电连接器在综合应力下表现出多种特性同时退化且特性间呈现相关性的问题，进一步利用Copula函数进行相关性建模，推导其多退化特性相关条件下的系统可靠度．最后以某型航空电连接器为算例，对提出的模型和方法进行说明和验证，结果表明，考虑退化特性相关性时的可靠度低于考虑各单独退化特性时的可靠度． |
| 英文摘要: |
| Random effect Wiener degradation process model is used to model the accelerated characteristic degradation process of aviation electrical connectors under the combined stress of temperature and vibration, and the degradation quantity and reliability are derived. The unknown parameters in the model are estimated by using the EM (expectation maximization) algorithm based on Bayesian update. In view of the problem that the electrical connector exhibits multiple characteristics degenerated at the same time and the correlation between the characteristics under the comprehensive stress, the Copula function is further used to build the correlation model, so that the reliability of the system under the condition of multiple degradation characteristics correlation can be deduced. Finally, taking an aviation electrical connector as an example, the model and method proposed are explained and verified. The results show that the reliability considering the correlation of degradation characteristic is lower than that considering each individual degradation characteristic. |
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